February, 2004
CTU Economic Bulletin No. 45
Submitted by EditorNews on 26 February, 2004 - 23:00.Februray, 2004
Comment
Talk of policy U-turns, economic hard-landings, and racial division are inevitably diverting attention from the key themes of Government policy development and implementation over the past few years. Although not always clearly articulated, the overall direction is based on sustainable development - a sharp contrast to both National and the 1984-90 Labour Government. Sustainable development means that economic growth is vital - but should be the sort of growth that leads to jobs, and decent ones at that. But the growth also has to deliver wider social benefits and not unduly harm the environment. It also has to take account of cultural factors. Sustainable development is not just about measuring success across a range of outcomes. It is also about and ensuring a future for the next generation - and, importantly, it is also about process. An inclusive approach is essential.
CTU Economic Bulletin No. 44
Submitted by EditorNews on 24 February, 2004 - 23:00.January, 2004
Comment
The economic outlook for 2004 is dominated by a small number of key factors. The Government remains in a very strong fiscal position and has foreshadowed a higher level of new expenditure in 2004 and onwards including a package to assist those on low incomes. The high dollar is offsetting slightly better export prices and is keeping imported inflation low. House prices are likely to rise at a slower pace (due to lower immigration and a lift in housing construction) than the horrendous 20% increase in 2003, but will still be a major source of concern. Some however are predicting an actual fall in house prices in some areas. The interest rate debate will continue to sway mainly between the effect of the high dollar on the one hand, and house price inflation on the other. The recent decision to increase the official cash rate to 5.25% could exacerbate the speculation on the NZ dollar and push it up even further damaging export returns. The dollar rose 10% against the US dollar in the last 3 months alone. Inflation remains at 1.6% - well within the 1 to 3% band for the Reserve Bank to consider over the medium term.