March, 2008

Submission to the Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee, February 2008

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Summary

February 2008

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Comment

There is now an accumulation of economic indicators pointing to slower economic growth. Despite relatively low levels of unemployment, the prospect of higher dairy returns, improving terms of trade and the likelihood of a solid Budget in May, in general it has to be acknowledged that the key economic issue is not inflation – but ensuring that slower growth does not tip over into a recession.

January 2008

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Comment

Predictions on the economic outlook for 2008 are tinged with more than the usual degree of hesitancy. This is a time when many economists are saying, in effect, "there is a lot of uncertainty, markets are volatile". In other words – they don’t know! There is obviously more certainty about what has already happened and why. And there can also be some predictions about knock-on effects. But there is uncertainty about quite how bad the US recession will be, how much contagion is still to come from the sub-prime mortgage crisis, what the impact will be on other countries, and how effective the US stimulus package will be and over what time frame.